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Home / Plan your retirement / How long will I live? / How long you can expect to live, and what it means for your super

How long you can expect to live, and what it means for your super

January 14, 2020 by Janine Mace 2 Comments

Reading time: 4 minutes

On this page

  • What is life expectancy?
  • Why does life expectancy matter?
  • Living long in the Lucky Country
  • What about life expectancy for retirees?
  • What about planning for the future?
  • Retirement planning for couples
  • Life expectancy for those aged 85+
  • Life expectancy calculator

Ever wondered how long you’ll live?

Or wondered what your life expectancy could mean for your super savings?

Well the answers may surprise you, as it could be a lot longer than you think.

Life expectancy is a complex topic, so SuperGuide has put together a straightforward guide to help explain the key concepts – enabling you to plan your retirement with a bit more confidence.


Super tip: At the bottom of this article you can use our Life expectancy calculator to estimate the average life expectancy for your sex and gender.

Click here to jump straight to the calculator


What is life expectancy?

Life expectancy is a statistical measure that estimates how long a typical person of a specific age and sex is likely to live.

It’s based on your year of birth and gender, but does not consider your circumstances, such as your personal health, family history, diet or lifestyle.


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That means it’s an estimate of how long a typical person is likely to live, not a prediction of how long you will live.

To complicate things, there are a number of different life expectancy figures available. These vary from average life expectancy at birth, to average life expectancy at age 65 or older.

Why does life expectancy matter?

Understanding the different life expectancy figures is very important when it comes to your retirement planning.

Many people base their retirement plans on the average life expectancy at birth figure – not on their life expectancy at age 65 – which can be quite a few years longer.


Need to know: Many pre-retirees forget the average life expectancy figure means half of all Australian retirees will not reach their life expectancy, but half will live more years than this projection.

Typically, two-thirds of people die within eight years either side of the average life expectancy.


If you plan your retirement income to only last until the average life expectancy at birth figure, you could run out of money in the final years of your retirement.

So if you want to feel really comfortable with your retirement plan, it’s worth understanding a bit more about life expectancy estimates to ensure your retirement income lasts as long you do.

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Living long in the Lucky Country

Australia’s life expectancy statistics show that, as a population group, we’re all living to an older age.

Back in the Middle Ages, reaching age 30 was a real achievement and as recently as 1950, the world’s average life expectancy was still only 48.

In Australia, our average life expectancy at birth has risen steadily over the decades since the 1880s and continues to increase.

Historical life expectancy at birth in Australia (1881–2017)

Period

1881–1890

1891–1900

1901–1910

1920–1922

1932–1934

Male

47

51

55

59

63

Female

51

55

59

63

67

Period

1946–1948

1953–1955

1960–1962

1965–1967

1970–1972

Male

66

67

68

68

68

Female

71

73

74

74

74

Period

1975–1977

1980–1982

1985–1987

1990–1992

1995–1997

Male

70

71

73

74

76

Female

77

78

79

80

81

Period

2000–2002

2005–2007

2010–2012

2015–2017

Male

78

79

80

81

Female

83

84

84

85

Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17, Australian Government Actuary

In fact, Aussies are lucky to be living in a country with one of the highest life expectancies at birth in the world, trailing Japan, Switzerland, Singapore, Spain and Italy.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) regularly estimates the life expectancy at birth for Australians. In its latest study for 2016–2018, the ABS estimated the life expectancy for a newborn male is 80.7 years, with a newborn female likely to enjoy 84.9 years.

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Life expectancy at birth in selected countries

Country

Year

Life expectancy at birth

 

 

Males

Females

Switzerland

2016

81.2

87.1

Japan

2016

81.1

85.4

Singapore

2018

81.0

85.3

Sweden

2018

80.8

85.2

Australia

2016–18

80.7

84.9

New Zealand

2016–18

80.2

84.3

France

2018

79.4

83.6

UK

2016–18

79.3

82.9

USA

2016

76.0

81.0

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics using World Health Organisation data

For the Australian population as a whole, life expectancy at birth is continuing to rise, increasing by 1.5 years for males and 1.2 years for females over the past 10 years.

Life expectancy at birth by sex, states and territories – 2006–2008 and 2016–2018

State or territory of usual residence

2006–2008

2016–2018

Increase over 10 years

 

Males

(years)

Females

(years)

Males 

(years)

Females

(years)

Males

(years)

Females

(years)

New South Wales

79.2

83.9

80.6

84.9

1.4

1.0

Victoria

79.6

83.9

81.7

85.3

2.1

1.4

Queensland

78.9

83.7

80.2

84.7

1.3

1.0

South Australia

79.2

83.8

80.4

84.7

1.2

0.9

Western Australia

79.3

84.0

80.5

85.1

1.2

1.1

Tasmania

77.7

82.3

79.3

83.2

1.6

0.9

Northern Territory

72.6

78.4

75.5

80.2

2.9

1.8

ACT

80.1

84.0

81.2

85.3

1.1

1.3

 

Australia

79.2

83.7

80.7

84.9

1.5

1.2

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2019

What about life expectancy for retirees?

The good news if you’ve made it to age 65 is that older Australians also have one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

Additional years of life expected at age 65 in selected countries

Country

Year

At age 65

 

 

Males

(years)

Females

(years)

Switzerland

2016

19.7

24.4

Japan

2016

19.6

22.6

Singapore

2018

19.3

23.2

Sweden

2018

19.1

22.4

Australia

2016-18

19.9

22.6

New Zealand

2016-18

19.6

21.6

France

2018

19.4

21.7

UK

2016-18

18.6

21.0

USA

2016

18.1

20.7

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics using World Health Organisation data

If you are age 65, a male can look forward to living another 19.9 years and a female a further 22.6 years.


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This means if you’re a 65-year-old male, your average life expectancy is age 84.9. For a 65-year-old female, your average life expectancy is age 87.6.

For the nerds among readers, this is referred to as your Period Life Expectancy.


Need to know: Anyone who has reached age 65 is a survivor, as they have managed to avoid an early death due to myriad reasons including illness and accidents.

This makes the average life expectancy of an Australian aged 65 higher than the life expectancy of a newborn who still has to negotiate all the perils of the next 65 years.


Current life expectancy at birth and at age 65

 

Life expectancy in years

Males

Females

Life expectancy for newborn

80.7

84.9

Period Life Expectancy for people still alive at age 65

84.9

(age 65 + 19.9 years)

87.6

(age 65 + 22.6 years)

Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17, Australian Government Actuary

What about planning for the future?

Treasury’s latest projections for life expectancy in Australia over the next few decades shows the Government expects Australians to continue living longer.

Projected life expectancy of Australians (in years)

 

2014–15

2024–25

2034–35

2044–45

2054–55

Life expectancy at birth

Men

91.5

92.6

93.6

94.4

95.1

Women

93.6

94.5

95.3

96.0

96.6

Further life expectancy at age 60

Men

26.4

27.9

29.3

30.5

31.5

Women

29.1

30.3

31.5

32.4

33.3

Further life expectancy at age 70

Men

16.9

18.2

19.3

20.4

21.3

Women

19.3

20.4

21.4

22.3

23.1

Source: Treasury, 2015 Intergenerational Report

Much of this is due to the fact medical and lifestyle advances continue to improve mortality (or death) rates in Australia so we are all living longer.

The Australian Government Actuary calculates these ‘mortality improvements’ as they are called and adds a factor for them to give you your Mortality-Improved Life Expectancy.

If the current trend of gaining extra years from mortality improvements continues, in 2030 the average 65-year-old Australian could be living significantly longer than today. So they will need more in their retirement savings.

Projected Period Life Expectancies at age 65 (with 25-year Mortality Improvement factor)

 

Male age 65

Female age 65

In 2020

85.5

87.9

In 2030

87.0

89.0

In 2040

88.3

90.0

Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17 with 25-year mortality factor improvements.


Need to know: When planning your retirement, your Mortality-Improved Life Expectancy gives you a much more realistic projection of how long the average person who has survived to age 65 is likely to live.

Most experts recommend using this average life expectancy figure when planning how long you will need to make your retirement income last.


Retirement planning for couples

While getting your head around how long you could live is tough, it’s also important to remember that you need to consider the life expectancy of both partners if you are a couple.

At most points during retirement, the probability of one of you being alive is much higher than the probability of either partner being alive. This is shown in this graph by Challenger of the survival probability for a couple both aged 65 in 2018.

Source: Challenger using data from Australian Life Tables 2010–12 with 25-year mortality improvement factors.


Need to know: The higher probability of one of you surviving means you can’t just plan for your own life expectancy, you also need to consider the average life expectancy of your partner.


Life expectancy for those aged 85+

When planning your retirement, it’s important to remember that reaching a ripe old age is not something that happens to only a few people.

In the past 20 years, the number of Australians aged 85 and over increased by 117.1%, while growth in the total population was only 34.8%.

In fact, in June 2019 there were 515,700 Australians aged 85 and over. So your chance of living well into old age is pretty good and happens to a lot more people than you may realise.


Need to know: The older you are the more likely you are to reach an even older age, as you have avoided many of the causes of an earlier death.

If you have reached the age of 85, you still need to plan on having quite a few more years left.

According to the Australian Life Tables 2015–2017, currently a male aged 85 on average can expect to live an additional 6.40 years, while a female aged 85 on average should expect to live an additional 7.37 years.


Life expectancy calculator

You can use SuperGuide’s Life expectancy calculator to see the average life expectancy for your sex and age. The estimates are based on the 2015-17 Australian Life Tables from the Australian Government Actuary.

Note that this is just an average life expectancy based on national statistics, and does not take into account any personal factors.

Just select your sex and current age to get started.

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Learn more about life expectancy in the following SuperGuide articles:

Beyond the average: Understanding the range of life expectancy

August 19, 2020

Life expectancy and longevity

March 9, 2020

We’re not just living for longer – we’re staying healthier for longer, too

June 12, 2019

Take the Australian Life Tables with a pinch of salt

January 16, 2019

Related topics

How long will I live? Plan your retirement

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How-to Super Guides Retirement planning strategies Women and super

IMPORTANT: All information on SuperGuide is general in nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether any information on SuperGuide is appropriate to you before acting on it. If SuperGuide refers to a financial product you should obtain the relevant product disclosure statement (PDS) or seek personal financial advice before making any investment decisions. Comments provided by readers that may include information relating to tax, superannuation or other rules cannot be relied upon as advice. SuperGuide does not verify the information provided within comments from readers. Learn more

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Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. OneSaneAussie says

    August 16, 2019 at 11:43 am

    I agree, Life expectancy would be affected if you got stabbed in the dark 😉
    …but seriously, you say “But it’s rare” to the purported averages. Aren’t averages effectively the most common value?

    Reply
  2. Ray says

    January 23, 2019 at 9:00 pm

    Life expectancy is merely a stab in the dark. If you manage to equal or exceed these purported averages then good luck to you. But it’s rare. The things you need to look at are your immediate family lines for longevity and whether you have followed a similar pattern of exercise and eating regime to them. If it’s a healthy trend then the stats favor you, otherwise, take off 20% and you’re looking at the true likely figure. If you blow all your personal savings before age 75 then you can realistically consider the partying and spending spree to be over and sedentary past times take over. Work on the realistic balance.
    If you were ever a smoker for a significant period in your life or heavy drinker then bank on death in your early 70’s or much much earlier.

    Regards or commiserations,

    Ray

    Reply

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