How long you can expect to live, and what it means for your super

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Ever wondered how long you’ll live?

Or wondered what your life expectancy could mean for your super savings?

Well the answers may surprise you, as it could be a lot longer than you think.

Life expectancy is a complex topic, so SuperGuide has put together a straightforward guide to help explain the key concepts – enabling you to plan your retirement with a bit more confidence.

What is life expectancy?

Life expectancy is a statistical measure that estimates how long a typical person of a specific age and sex is likely to live.

It’s based on your year of birth and gender, but does not consider your circumstances, such as your personal health, family history, diet or lifestyle.

That means it’s an estimate of how long a typical person is likely to live, not a prediction of how long you will live.

To complicate things, there are a number of different life expectancy figures available. These vary from average life expectancy at birth, to average life expectancy at age 65 or older.

Why does life expectancy matter?

Understanding the different life expectancy figures is very important when it comes to your retirement planning.

Many people base their retirement plans on the average life expectancy at birth figure – not on their life expectancy at age 65 – which can be quite a few years longer.

If you plan your retirement income to only last until the average life expectancy at birth figure, you could run out of money in the final years of your retirement.

So if you want to feel really comfortable with your retirement plan, it’s worth understanding a bit more about life expectancy estimates to ensure your retirement income lasts as long you do.

Living long in the Lucky Country

Australia’s life expectancy statistics show that, as a population group, we’re all living to an older age.

Back in the Middle Ages, reaching age 30 was a real achievement and as recently as 1950, the world’s average life expectancy was still only 48.

In Australia, our average life expectancy at birth has risen steadily over the decades since the 1880s and continues to increase.

Historical life expectancy at birth in Australia (1881–2017)

Period	1881–1890	1891–1900	1901–1910	1920–1922	1932–1934
Male	47	51	55	59	63
Female	51	55	59	63	67
Period	1946–1948	1953–1955	1960–1962	1965–1967	1970–1972
Male	66	67	68	68	68
Female	71	73	74	74	74
Period	1975–1977	1980–1982	1985–1987	1990–1992	1995–1997
Male	70	71	73	74	76
Female	77	78	79	80	81
Period	2000–2002	2005–2007	2010–2012	2015–2017
Male	78	79	80	81
Female	83	84	84	85

Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17, Australian Government Actuary

In fact, Aussies are lucky to be living in a country with one of the highest life expectancies at birth in the world, trailing Japan, Switzerland, Singapore, Spain and Italy.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) regularly estimates the life expectancy at birth for Australians. In its latest study for 2016–2018, the ABS estimated the life expectancy for a newborn male is 80.7 years, with a newborn female likely to enjoy 84.9 years.

Life expectancy at birth in selected countries

Country	Year	Life expectancy at birth
		Males	Females
Switzerland	2016	81.2	87.1
Japan	2016	81.1	85.4
Singapore	2018	81.0	85.3
Sweden	2018	80.8	85.2
Australia	2016–18	80.7	84.9
New Zealand	2016–18	80.2	84.3
France	2018	79.4	83.6
UK	2016–18	79.3	82.9
USA	2016	76.0	81.0

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics using World Health Organisation data

For the Australian population as a whole, life expectancy at birth is continuing to rise, increasing by 1.5 years for males and 1.2 years for females over the past 10 years.

Life expectancy at birth by sex, states and territories – 2006–2008 and 2016–2018

State or territory of usual residence	2006–2008		2016–2018		Increase over 10 years
	Males (years)	Females (years)	Males  (years)	Females (years)	Males (years)	Females (years)
New South Wales	79.2	83.9	80.6	84.9	1.4	1.0
Victoria	79.6	83.9	81.7	85.3	2.1	1.4
Queensland	78.9	83.7	80.2	84.7	1.3	1.0
South Australia	79.2	83.8	80.4	84.7	1.2	0.9
Western Australia	79.3	84.0	80.5	85.1	1.2	1.1
Tasmania	77.7	82.3	79.3	83.2	1.6	0.9
Northern Territory	72.6	78.4	75.5	80.2	2.9	1.8
ACT	80.1	84.0	81.2	85.3	1.1	1.3
Australia	79.2	83.7	80.7	84.9	1.5	1.2

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2019

What about life expectancy for retirees?

The good news if you’ve made it to age 65 is that older Australians also have one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

Additional years of life expected at age 65 in selected countries

Country	Year	At age 65
		Males (years)	Females (years)
Switzerland	2016	19.7	24.4
Japan	2016	19.6	22.6
Singapore	2018	19.3	23.2
Sweden	2018	19.1	22.4
Australia	2016-18	19.9	22.6
New Zealand	2016-18	19.6	21.6
France	2018	19.4	21.7
UK	2016-18	18.6	21.0
USA	2016	18.1	20.7

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics using World Health Organisation data

If you are age 65, a male can look forward to living another 19.9 years and a female a further 22.6 years.

This means if you’re a 65-year-old male, your average life expectancy is age 84.9. For a 65-year-old female, your average life expectancy is age 87.6.

For the nerds among readers, this is referred to as your Period Life Expectancy.

Current life expectancy at birth and at age 65

	Life expectancy in years
	Males	Females
Life expectancy for newborn	80.7	84.9
Period Life Expectancy for people still alive at age 65	84.9 (age 65 + 19.9 years)	87.6 (age 65 + 22.6 years)

Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17, Australian Government Actuary

What about planning for the future?

Treasury’s latest projections for life expectancy in Australia over the next few decades shows the Government expects Australians to continue living longer.

Projected life expectancy of Australians (in years)

	2014–15	2024–25	2034–35	2044–45	2054–55
Life expectancy at birth
Men	91.5	92.6	93.6	94.4	95.1
Women	93.6	94.5	95.3	96.0	96.6
Further life expectancy at age 60
Men	26.4	27.9	29.3	30.5	31.5
Women	29.1	30.3	31.5	32.4	33.3
Further life expectancy at age 70
Men	16.9	18.2	19.3	20.4	21.3
Women	19.3	20.4	21.4	22.3	23.1

Source: Treasury, 2015 Intergenerational Report

Much of this is due to the fact medical and lifestyle advances continue to improve mortality (or death) rates in Australia so we are all living longer.

The Australian Government Actuary calculates these ‘mortality improvements’ as they are called and adds a factor for them to give you your Mortality-Improved Life Expectancy.

If the current trend of gaining extra years from mortality improvements continues, in 2030 the average 65-year-old Australian could be living significantly longer than today. So they will need more in their retirement savings.

Projected Period Life Expectancies at age 65 (with 25-year Mortality Improvement factor)

	Male age 65	Female age 65
In 2020	85.5	87.9
In 2030	87.0	89.0
In 2040	88.3	90.0

Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17 with 25-year mortality factor improvements.

Retirement planning for couples

While getting your head around how long you could live is tough, it’s also important to remember that you need to consider the life expectancy of both partners if you are a couple.

At most points during retirement, the probability of one of you being alive is much higher than the probability of either partner being alive. This is shown in this graph by Challenger of the survival probability for a couple both aged 65 in 2018.

Source: Challenger using data from Australian Life Tables 2010–12 with 25-year mortality improvement factors.

Life expectancy for those aged 85+

When planning your retirement, it’s important to remember that reaching a ripe old age is not something that happens to only a few people.

In the past 20 years, the number of Australians aged 85 and over increased by 117.1%, while growth in the total population was only 34.8%.

In fact, in June 2019 there were 515,700 Australians aged 85 and over. So your chance of living well into old age is pretty good and happens to a lot more people than you may realise.

Life expectancy calculator

You can use SuperGuide’s Life expectancy calculator to see the average life expectancy for your sex and age. The estimates are based on the 2015-17 Australian Life Tables from the Australian Government Actuary.

Note that this is just an average life expectancy based on national statistics, and does not take into account any personal factors.

Just select your sex and current age to get started.

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