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Ever wondered how long you’ll live?
Or wondered what your life expectancy could mean for your super savings?
Well the answers may surprise you, as it could be a lot longer than you think.
Life expectancy is a complex topic, so SuperGuide has put together a straightforward guide to help explain the key concepts – enabling you to plan your retirement with a bit more confidence.
Super tip
At the bottom of this article you can use our Life Expectancy calculator to estimate the average life expectancy for your sex and gender.
Click here to jump straight to the calculator
What is life expectancy?
Life expectancy is a statistical measure that estimates how long a typical person of a specific age and sex is likely to live.
It’s based on your year of birth and gender, but does not consider your circumstances, such as your personal health, family history, diet or lifestyle.
That means it’s an estimate of how long a typical person is likely to live, not a prediction of how long you will live.
To complicate things, there are a number of different life expectancy figures available. These vary from average life expectancy at birth, to average life expectancy at age 65 or older.
Why does life expectancy matter?
Understanding the different life expectancy figures is very important when it comes to your retirement planning.
Many people base their retirement plans on the average life expectancy at birth figure – not on their life expectancy at age 65 – which can be quite a few years longer.
Need to know
Many pre-retirees forget the average life expectancy figure means half of all Australian retirees will not reach their life expectancy, but half will live more years than this projection.
Typically, two-thirds of people die within eight years either side of the average life expectancy.
If you plan your retirement income to only last until the average life expectancy at birth figure, you could run out of money in the final years of your retirement.
So if you want to feel really comfortable with your retirement plan, it’s worth understanding a bit more about life expectancy estimates to ensure your retirement income lasts as long you do.
Living long in the Lucky Country
Australia’s life expectancy statistics show that, as a population group, we’re all living to an older age.
Back in the Middle Ages, reaching age 30 was a real achievement and as recently as 1950, the world’s average life expectancy was still only 48.
In Australia, our average life expectancy at birth has risen steadily over the decades since the 1880s and continues to increase.
Historical life expectancy at birth in Australia (1881–2017)
|
Period |
1881–1890 |
1891–1900 |
1901–1910 |
1920–1922 |
1932–1934 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male |
47 |
51 |
55 |
59 |
63 |
|
Female |
51 |
55 |
59 |
63 |
67 |
|
Period |
1946–1948 |
1953–1955 |
1960–1962 |
1965–1967 |
1970–1972 |
|
Male |
66 |
67 |
68 |
68 |
68 |
|
Female |
71 |
73 |
74 |
74 |
74 |
|
Period |
1975–1977 |
1980–1982 |
1985–1987 |
1990–1992 |
1995–1997 |
|
Male |
70 |
71 |
73 |
74 |
76 |
|
Female |
77 |
78 |
79 |
80 |
81 |
|
Period |
2000–2002 |
2005–2007 |
2010–2012 |
2015–2017 |
|
|
Male |
78 |
79 |
80 |
81 |
|
|
Female |
83 |
84 |
84 |
85 |
Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17, Australian Government Actuary
In fact, Aussies are lucky to be living in a country with one of the highest life expectancies at birth in the world, trailing Japan, Switzerland, Singapore, Spain and Italy.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) regularly estimates the life expectancy at birth for Australians. In its latest study for 2016–2018, the ABS estimated the life expectancy for a newborn male is 80.7 years, with a newborn female likely to enjoy 84.9 years.
Life expectancy at birth in selected countries
|
Country |
Year |
Life expectancy at birth |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
Males |
Females |
|
Switzerland |
2016 |
81.2 |
87.1 |
|
Japan |
2016 |
81.1 |
85.4 |
|
Singapore |
2018 |
81.0 |
85.3 |
|
Sweden |
2018 |
80.8 |
85.2 |
|
Australia |
2016–18 |
80.7 |
84.9 |
|
New Zealand |
2016–18 |
80.2 |
84.3 |
|
France |
2018 |
79.4 |
83.6 |
|
UK |
2016–18 |
79.3 |
82.9 |
|
USA |
2016 |
76.0 |
81.0 |
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics using World Health Organisation data
For the Australian population as a whole, life expectancy at birth is continuing to rise, increasing by 1.5 years for males and 1.2 years for females over the past 10 years.
Life expectancy at birth by sex, states and territories – 2006–2008 and 2016–2018
|
State or territory of usual residence |
2006–2008 |
2016–2018 |
Increase over 10 years |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Males (years) |
Females (years) |
Males (years) |
Females (years) |
Males (years) |
Females (years) |
|
|
New South Wales |
79.2 |
83.9 |
80.6 |
84.9 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
|
Victoria |
79.6 |
83.9 |
81.7 |
85.3 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
|
Queensland |
78.9 |
83.7 |
80.2 |
84.7 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
|
South Australia |
79.2 |
83.8 |
80.4 |
84.7 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
|
Western Australia |
79.3 |
84.0 |
80.5 |
85.1 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
|
Tasmania |
77.7 |
82.3 |
79.3 |
83.2 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
|
Northern Territory |
72.6 |
78.4 |
75.5 |
80.2 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
|
ACT |
80.1 |
84.0 |
81.2 |
85.3 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
|
Australia |
79.2 |
83.7 |
80.7 |
84.9 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2019
What about life expectancy for retirees?
The good news if you’ve made it to age 65 is that older Australians also have one of the highest life expectancies in the world.
Additional years of life expected at age 65 in selected countries
|
Country |
Year |
At age 65 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
Males (years) |
Females (years) |
|
Switzerland |
2016 |
19.7 |
24.4 |
|
Japan |
2016 |
19.6 |
22.6 |
|
Singapore |
2018 |
19.3 |
23.2 |
|
Sweden |
2018 |
19.1 |
22.4 |
|
Australia |
2016-18 |
19.9 |
22.6 |
|
New Zealand |
2016-18 |
19.6 |
21.6 |
|
France |
2018 |
19.4 |
21.7 |
|
UK |
2016-18 |
18.6 |
21.0 |
|
USA |
2016 |
18.1 |
20.7 |
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics using World Health Organisation data
If you are age 65, a male can look forward to living another 19.9 years and a female a further 22.6 years.
This means if you’re a 65-year-old male, your average life expectancy is age 84.9. For a 65-year-old female, your average life expectancy is age 87.6.
For the nerds among readers, this is referred to as your Period Life Expectancy.
Need to know
Anyone who has reached age 65 is a survivor, as they have managed to avoid an early death due to myriad reasons including illness and accidents.
This makes the average life expectancy of an Australian aged 65 higher than the life expectancy of a newborn who still has to negotiate all the perils of the next 65 years.
Current life expectancy at birth and at age 65
|
|
Life expectancy in years |
|
|---|---|---|
|
|
Males |
Females |
|
Life expectancy for newborn |
80.7 |
84.9 |
|
Period Life Expectancy for people still alive at age 65 |
84.9 (age 65 + 19.9 years) |
87.6 (age 65 + 22.6 years) |
Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17, Australian Government Actuary
What about planning for the future?
Treasury’s latest projections for life expectancy in Australia over the next few decades shows the Government expects Australians to continue living longer.
Projected life expectancy of Australians (in years)
|
2014–15 |
2024–25 |
2034–35 |
2044–45 |
2054–55 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Life expectancy at birth |
|||||
|
Men |
91.5 |
92.6 |
93.6 |
94.4 |
95.1 |
|
Women |
93.6 |
94.5 |
95.3 |
96.0 |
96.6 |
|
Further life expectancy at age 60 |
|||||
|
Men |
26.4 |
27.9 |
29.3 |
30.5 |
31.5 |
|
Women |
29.1 |
30.3 |
31.5 |
32.4 |
33.3 |
|
Further life expectancy at age 70 |
|||||
|
Men |
16.9 |
18.2 |
19.3 |
20.4 |
21.3 |
|
Women |
19.3 |
20.4 |
21.4 |
22.3 |
23.1 |
Source: Treasury, 2015 Intergenerational Report
Much of this is due to the fact medical and lifestyle advances continue to improve mortality (or death) rates in Australia so we are all living longer.
The Australian Government Actuary calculates these ‘mortality improvements’ as they are called and adds a factor for them to give you your Mortality-Improved Life Expectancy.
If the current trend of gaining extra years from mortality improvements continues, in 2030 the average 65-year-old Australian could be living significantly longer than today. So they will need more in their retirement savings.
Projected Period Life Expectancies at age 65 (with 25-year Mortality Improvement factor)
|
|
Male age 65 |
Female age 65 |
|---|---|---|
|
In 2020 |
85.5 |
87.9 |
|
In 2030 |
87.0 |
89.0 |
|
In 2040 |
88.3 |
90.0 |
Source: Australian Life Tables 2015–17 with 25-year mortality factor improvements.
Need to know
When planning your retirement, your Mortality-Improved Life Expectancy gives you a much more realistic projection of how long the average person who has survived to age 65 is likely to live.
Most experts recommend using this average life expectancy figure when planning how long you will need to make your retirement income last.
Retirement planning for couples
While getting your head around how long you could live is tough, it’s also important to remember that you need to consider the life expectancy of both partners if you are a couple.
At most points during retirement, the probability of one of you being alive is much higher than the probability of either partner being alive. This is shown in this graph by Challenger of the survival probability for a couple both aged 65 in 2018.
Need to know
The higher probability of one of you surviving means you can’t just plan for your own life expectancy, you also need to consider the average life expectancy of your partner.
Life expectancy for those aged 85+
When planning your retirement, it’s important to remember that reaching a ripe old age is not something that happens to only a few people.
In the past 20 years, the number of Australians aged 85 and over increased by 117.1%, while growth in the total population was only 34.8%.
In fact, in June 2019 there were 515,700 Australians aged 85 and over. So your chance of living well into old age is pretty good and happens to a lot more people than you may realise.
Need to know
The older you are the more likely you are to reach an even older age, as you have avoided many of the causes of an earlier death.
If you have reached the age of 85, you still need to plan on having quite a few more years left.
According to the Australian Life Tables 2015–2017, currently a male aged 85 on average can expect to live an additional 6.40 years, while a female aged 85 on average should expect to live an additional 7.37 years.
Life Expectancy calculator
You can use SuperGuide’s Life Expectancy calculator to see the average life expectancy for your sex and age. The estimates are based on the 2015-17 Australian Life Tables from the Australian Government Actuary.
Note that this is just an average life expectancy based on national statistics, and does not take into account any personal factors.
Just select your sex and current age to get started.
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I agree, Life expectancy would be affected if you got stabbed in the dark 😉
…but seriously, you say “But it’s rare” to the purported averages. Aren’t averages effectively the most common value?
Life expectancy is merely a stab in the dark. If you manage to equal or exceed these purported averages then good luck to you. But it’s rare. The things you need to look at are your immediate family lines for longevity and whether you have followed a similar pattern of exercise and eating regime to them. If it’s a healthy trend then the stats favor you, otherwise, take off 20% and you’re looking at the true likely figure. If you blow all your personal savings before age 75 then you can realistically consider the partying and spending spree to be over and sedentary past times take over. Work on the realistic balance.
If you were ever a smoker for a significant period in your life or heavy drinker then bank on death in your early 70’s or much much earlier.
Regards or commiserations,
Ray