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An escalation of the US-Iran conflict in the Middle East took the wind out of markets and super funds in March, with median Growth fund (61% to 80% growth assets) down 3.2% for the month.
Since then, markets have bounced back in April on optimism that an end to the conflict is in sight, with falling oil prices and solid corporate earnings. Chant West estimates the median Growth fund is up 3.1% so far in April, reversing the March decline and taking the return for the financial year to date to 6% with about 10 weeks to go.
Chant West head of superannuation investment research, Mano Mohankumar says the recent volatility is a reminder of the importance for super fund members to stay patient and maintain a long-term perspective.
“Members who panicked after seeing their balances fall in March and switched to lower risk options or cash not only crystallised paper losses, but also missed out on the subsequent V-shaped rebound. Over time, missing out on returns like these can make a significant difference to a member’s balance at retirement due to the power of compounding,” he says.
The table below shows the median performance to the end of March 2026 for the five traditional diversified risk categories.
Super fund performance (results to 31 March 2026)
| Fund category (% growth assets) | 1 mth (%) | 3 mths (%) | FYTD (%) | 1 yr (% per yr) | 3 yrs (% per yr) | 5 yrs (% per yr) | 7 yrs (% per yr) | 10 yrs (% per yr) | 15 yrs (% per yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Growth (96–100%) | -5.2 | -3.4 | 3.1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| High Growth (81–95%) | -4.0 | -2.6 | 2.8 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| Growth (61–80%) | -3.2 | -1.9 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Balanced (41–60%) | -2.5 | -1.2 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.3 |
| Conservative (21–40%) | -1.7 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
Source: Chant West. Performance is shown net of investment fees and tax, before administration fees and adviser commissions.
As you can see in the table above, returns for all periods from one to 15 years remain positive, a remarkably long positive run. And all risk categories have met their typical long-term return objectives, which range from CPI (a measure of inflation) + 1.5% for Conservative funds to CPI + 4.25% for All Growth.
The chart below shows performance of the median Growth fund since the introduction of compulsory super in July 1992. Over that period, the median Growth fund has returned 7.9% per year. The average annual CPI increase over the same period is 2.7%, giving a real return of 5.2% per year – well above the typical 3.5% long-term target. While the median Growth fund has delivered returns of 9.3% or more per year over the past three calendar years, Mohankumar stresses that that level of return should not be thought of as normal and urges super fund members to think long term.
Even looking at the past 20 years, which includes three major market downturns – the GFC in 2007–09, COVID in 2020, and the 2022 calendar year marked by high inflation and rising interest rates to combat it – the median Growth fund has returned 6.5% per year, comfortably ahead of the typical objective.
Growth funds have produced positive returns in 28 of the past 33 financial years. The typical risk objective for Growth funds would be no more than six negative returns during that period (there have been just five), so the risk objective has been met as well as the performance objective.
Source: Chant West
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