Retirement confidence: What the latest research tells us

Over the past 12 months, researchers working for AMP, Vanguard, MLC, TAL, Colonial First State (CFS), Brighter Super, Challenger, ASIC and the Super Members Council have surveyed more than 14,000 Australians about how they feel about retirement. The sponsors differ, the samples differ and the questions differ, but the findings are strikingly consistent.

Australians are heading into retirement with more savings than any previous generation. Super now holds more than $4.4 trillion, a pool Vanguard says is on track to become the second largest in the world by the 2030s. Yet only around half of us feel confident or prepared, and fear of running out of money runs through every survey that asked about it.

This guide pulls together the key findings from a year of retirement research, then looks at what the surveys say actually builds confidence.

The year in retirement research at a glance

Each survey uses different samples and question wording, so treat the figures as directional rather than directly comparable. It’s also worth noting who commissioned the research. AMP, Challenger and TAL all offer lifetime income products, MLC and CFS run super and pension platforms, Brighter Super is a super fund with its own advice and retirement income services, and the Super Members Council is the industry super peak body, which uses its research to advocate for policy reform.

That doesn’t change their results, but a commercial focus can shape the questions a survey asks, so we name the source of every finding.

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Fear of running out is the common thread

Every survey that asked the question found the same anxiety near the top of the list.

• AMP found 58% of Australians worry about running out of money in retirement.
• ASIC’s research put the figure at 48% among pre-retirees aged 50 to 66, the group closest to the transition, with only a third of that group confident of being financially comfortable.
• CFS found 54% worry about not having enough to live comfortably.

AMP’s research shows how tightly the fear and confidence are linked, in what it calls the Certainty Gap. Among people who worry about running out, just 28% feel financially confident about retirement. Among those who don’t share the fear, 84% do, and the gap widens further among Australians aged 65 and over.

Share in each group who feel financially confident about retirement. Worriers are those who worry about running out of money in retirement. Source: AMP Retirement Confidence Pulse 2026.

Challenger’s research with retirees tells a similar story. Its Institute for Lifetime Income found retirees with similar savings and similar circumstances can experience retirement very differently depending on their approach to spending, identifying four spending personas it labelled carefree, content, cautious and concerned.

Confidence is also fragile. Brighter Super’s State of Retirement research, conducted with Investment Trends, found the share of retirees confident their savings will last fell from 60% to 47% in six months, while pre-retirees who feel prepared fell from 38% to 31%. Brighter Super’s own reading is that the confidence gains recorded in 2025 were driven by stronger investment markets and easing inflation rather than any lasting improvement in preparedness.

Share of retirees confident their savings will last. Source: Brighter Super and Investment Trends, State of Retirement reports 2024–2026.

There is also a consistent pattern in when the fear peaks. Challenger found 49% of pre-retirees rank the fear of running out among the top three things hit by the rising cost of living, compared with 39% of people already retired, and TAL found around nine in 10 retirees who converted their super to a pension account, annuity or lifetime income product were happy with the decision.

We retire earlier than we plan to

Three of the surveys reached the same conclusion independently. Australians consistently retire earlier than they expect to.

• Vanguard found working-age Australians expect to retire at 66 or 67, yet retirees in the same survey stopped work at an average age of 62.6, close to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figure of 63.8.
• TAL found 61% of current retirees left the workforce before 65, yet only 15% of pre-retirees expect to retire that early.
• CFS found Australians aspire to retire at 62 but expect to work until 66.

The gap is hardest on those caught by surprise. Among people who retired in the past five years, Vanguard found almost half (48%) left earlier than expected, at an average age of just 59, and women made up 68% of that group. Those who retired earlier than expected were more than twice as likely to report low retirement confidence.

Gap between ideal and realistic retirement ages by level of planning. Source: Vanguard How Australia Retires 2026.

The financial implication is significant. Retiring five years earlier than expected means five fewer years of contributions at peak earning capacity and five more years of drawing down. Job loss, health, and caring responsibilities rarely arrive on schedule. This is one reason retirement plans often consider what would happen if retirement came several years earlier than expected.

The magic number keeps inflating

If the surveys agree on the fear, they also agree that the amount Australians think they need keeps climbing.

• CFS found Australians now believe they need more than $1 million to retire comfortably, a jump of $183,000 in a single year.
• Challenger’s retirees aged 60 and over believe they need $1,316 a week, about $68,000 a year, to be happy and comfortable, above the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) Retirement Standard benchmark of about $1,000 a week for a retiree who owns their home, cited in the same research.
• Vanguard found Australians under 45 estimate they will need more than $90,000 a year in household income, against the ASFA comfortable couple benchmark of about $79,000.

Meanwhile, the retirees in Vanguard’s survey reported needing around $60,000 a year, and many told Vanguard their retirement lifestyle turned out broadly in line with what they expected before leaving work. Pre-retirees tend to estimate they will need more than current retirees report needing.

Part of the difference is cost-of-living anxiety. AMP found 47% of Australians nominate the cost of living as the single biggest threat to their retirement security, MLC found 64% name it as a barrier to achieving their financial aspirations, and among Australians with low retirement confidence, Vanguard found 88% cite the rising cost of living as a barrier, more than any other factor. Housing is also changing the arithmetic. Vanguard found 48% of Gen Z and 37% of Millennials expect to retire still carrying a mortgage. Of those, 39% expect to use their super to pay off the mortgage, while 45% expect to keep making repayments through retirement. The standard benchmarks assume you own your home outright, an assumption that will hold for fewer future retirees.

Women are consistently less confident

Every survey that split its results by gender found the same divide.

AMP found 42% of women feel confident about retirement compared with 61% of men, and Vanguard found the gender gap in retirement confidence persists even after controlling for income, wealth, home ownership and age, suggesting the difference is not simply about money.

Two findings provide some context. First, women are far more likely to have retirement arrive before they’re ready, as the Vanguard figures above show. Second, the confidence gap tracks a knowledge gap, with Vanguard’s financial literacy testing finding the widest divide among 45 to 54-year-olds. AMP’s deeper analysis, released in January, found the divide compounds with life events. Only 21% of separated or divorced women in their 40s feel confident about retirement, compared with 50% of men in the same situation.

Share who feel financially confident about retirement. Source: AMP Retirement Confidence Pulse 2026.

What actually builds confidence

Another useful thread in this year’s research is not the anxiety itself, but what relieves it.

Whatever your situation, the one thing everyone can do to build confidence is plan. Vanguard found 75% of Australians who have a clear idea of what they need and how to achieve it report high retirement confidence, compared with just 4% of those with no plan, and the relationship holds after adjusting for age, income, home ownership and wealth.

Planning also anchors expectations. Those with a detailed plan expected to retire within two years of their ideal age, against a gap of almost 10 years for those with no plan. Yet 45% of working-age Australians have no retirement plan at all.

Brighter Super’s research points the same way. Pre-retirees who feel prepared started planning 6.6 years before retirement on average and hold super balances of $438,000, against 3.8 years and $177,000 for those who feel unprepared, and they use financial advice at nearly twice the rate.

Vanguard’s modelling identified five actions associated with a meaningful lift in confidence:

• Building a retirement plan
• Improving financial literacy
• Understanding how super and the Age Pension work
• Making voluntary contributions
• Engaging with your super at least every six months

For a typical less-engaged 38-year-old, the modelling found that having all five characteristics roughly tripled the probability of high retirement confidence.

Retirement confidence by level of retirement planning. Source: Vanguard How Australia Retires 2026.

Advice, for those who can afford it, runs a close second. CFS found 77% of Australians who receive financial advice feel prepared for retirement, compared with 45% of those without an adviser, and those receiving advice expect to retire three years earlier, at 64 compared with 67. Some of that difference may reflect who gets advice in the first place, as wealthier people are more likely to seek it, and the 2026 figures don’t adjust for this. Earlier CFS research did, though, finding advised Australians remained more confident than unadvised Australians with similar wealth and income.

Funds are also stepping into the guidance role. TAL found 64% of pre-retirees trust their fund to advise on their retirement needs, and the Super Members Council found 81% would use basic guidance or advice from their fund if it were free.

Income certainty is the third theme. AMP found 84% of Australians say knowing they had an income for life would make them more confident about spending in retirement, yet Challenger found 59% of over-60s had never heard of lifetime income streams as a retirement strategy, and Vanguard found only 11% of over-55s feel confident they understand annuities. AMP, Challenger and TAL all offer lifetime income products, which doesn’t change these results but may shape the questions their surveys ask. The gap itself is beyond doubt, though. The Super Members Council, which has no product to sell, found only 7% of pre-retirees say they understand annuities or lifetime income products.

More than money

Challenger’s happiness research adds a dimension the financial surveys can miss. Activities and hobbies, a clear sense of purpose, and physical and mental health were the biggest drivers of retirement happiness in its index, with volunteers scoring measurably higher than non-volunteers. Having money ranked last of the index’s six happiness pillars. It’s a useful counterweight to the financial focus of the other eight surveys, and a reminder that every retirement plan ultimately has to answer a non-financial question, which is what you are retiring to.

Retirement happiness pillar scores, 2024 to 2026. Source: Challenger Retirement Happiness Index 2026.

The bottom line

Across nine surveys and more than 14,000 Australians, the message is remarkably consistent.

Retirement confidence isn’t determined by your super balance alone. It is closely linked with having a plan, a realistic idea of when retirement might begin, understanding where your income will come from, and having something to retire to.