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Median retirement balance projected to double
The median super balance for people aged 65 to 69 is projected to approach $450,000 within about a decade, more than double the $204,000 it reached in 2024, according to the 2026 Intergenerational Report released by Treasury on 21 September.
As in earlier reports, super is projected to keep easing reliance on the Age Pension, with the share of older Australians receiving a pension or income support payment falling from 66% to 52% by 2066.
Larger balances only help if retirees use them. The report notes that many recent retirees die with substantial super balances still unspent, pointing to the complexity of the system, fear of running out and the habit of treating super as a nest egg rather than a source of income. In 2022-23, the median balance for people aged 65 and over in the year before they died was $76,000, and around a quarter held more than $250,000. Drawdowns from super are projected to rise from 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025-26 to 5.8% by 2065-66.
Aware Super released modelling the same day that puts a figure on that gap. A homeowner couple, both aged 67 and retiring in 2036 with median balances, would have first-year retirement income of $63,700 drawing the legislated minimum, according to the fund. Using a drawdown designed to run the account down by age 95, the same couple would have $88,400, in today’s dollars. Almost half of Aware Super’s new retirees plan to draw only the minimum.
“For decades, Australians have been taught the importance of saving, now we need to help them feel confident to spend those savings in a way that supports the retirement they worked so hard for,” said Aware Super chief executive Deanne Stewart.
The higher figure depends on the account lasting exactly as long as planned. Aware Super assumed investment returns of 3.25% a year above inflation. If returns fall short, or you live beyond 95, a faster drawdown leaves less to fall back on.
Super funds agree that retirees underspend, but not on what to do about it, according to J.P. Morgan’s Future of Superannuation 2026 report, released in September and based on interviews with executives at funds managing more than $1 trillion. HESTA wants eligible members moved into a retirement income account automatically unless they opt out. AustralianSuper and Australian Retirement Trust favour suggesting a retirement option based on what the fund knows about each member, while UniSuper argues the move into retirement should remain an active decision.
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