Updated life tables: is the tide shifting for Australian life expectancies?

Australians born today are expected to live longer than Aussies born five years earlier, on average, according to the Australian Life Tables 2002-2007 released by the Australian Government Actuary – unless you’re woman in your eighties or nineties.

In what may be a statistical aberration, or perhaps a sign that life expectancies are set to peak, for the first time since records started, a female aged 81 years or over, will live a shorter life than a female aged 81 years or over five years earlier (more on this later).

An extra year of life at birth, on average

For the rest of the population, life expectancies are still increasing. If a child is born today, at birth a girl’s life expectancy is 83.67 years (82.87 years, five years ago), and a boy’s life expectancy is 79.02 years (77.64 years, five years ago).

A jump of more than a year for boys (and nearly a year for girls) in a five-year period is significant but the most significant trend is the dramatic improvement in the life expectancies of Australians since such records began more than 120 years ago.

The steady increase in life expectancy at birth, from 47.2 years in the 1880s (for males) to 79 years in the latest life tables augurs well for future generations. A female born in the 1880s could expect to live (on average) until the age of 50.84 years. A girl born today can expect a life more than 30 years longer than the life experienced by her foremothers (see table below).

The most encouraging information that you can glean from the AGA Life Tables is that as you age, the chances of you living longer than your life expectancy at a younger age, increase every year. Even in the 1880s, a male who managed to reach 65 years, could expect to reach the age of 76.06 years – a massive jump of nearly 30 years from a boy born in the same era. A 65-year old woman in the 1880s could expect to reach 77.27 years (an extra 26 years from a girl born in the same era).

Men living much longer, and older women living shorter lives

According to the Australian Government Actuary (AGA), the gap between the life expectancy of females and males is narrowing. Men are catching up with women, and if a man is lucky enough to reach the age of 99, his life expectancy exceeds that of a female.

So, the key message from the statistics is: keep on keeping on, except, it seems, if you’re a woman in her eighties or nineties.

A disturbing shift in the life tables is that the life expectancy for women in their eighties and nineties has decreased. The shift is very slight – a matter of a few weeks, but is this significant deviation from the upward long-term trend a sign of things to come for older women, or is it simply a statistical blip?

For example, five years ago a woman aged 85 years could expect to live another 7.28 years, on average. Five years later, the average life expectancy of an 81-year old woman is 7.08 years – lower. This drop extends to all ages beyond the age of 80.

If older women are now living shorter lives, what is the reason for such a shift, and will this trend continue? I have asked the Australian Government Actuary’s office this question and you can find out what a spokesman from the AGA had to say in Living to a ‘very old age’: a note from the Australian Government Actuary’s office.

Source: Compiled from Australian Life Tables, 2005-2007, Australian Government Actuary (www.aga.gov.au). Released 27 November 2009. Next update due in 2014.

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