Comments

  1. Mick Goodwin says:

    Trish, I just stumbled upon your site and just wanted to commend you on it. finally someone will give relevant and meaningful data on a very important and confusing subject. Your other contributors to this forum also ask relevant questions and give very good advice. well done and I will continue to visit and contribute when I can.

  2. Arthur Kingsland says:

    Some things I can’t seem to understand about discussions about how much super is needed…

    Why is the life expectancy relevant? I have participated in some (admittedly naive) surveys and would expect to live well into my 90s, and my partner is likely to live even longer with two close relatives at 92 & 95, and a recent death of an aunt at 97!

    Why not assume that the money should never run out, i.e. that we might expect to get $55,000 from now until eternity? If are both dead at 72 then our estate gets a great windfall. If we both live until 105, then we’ve still got sufficient funds to support what is likely to be an ever increasing health bill.

    Why shouldn’t the financial adviser assume that we need this income (adjusted for inflation) from now until 20-30-40-50 years from now? How long we live should be irrelevant.

  3. bob amery says:

    For those of you thinking Mr Kalkman’s idea of living on dividends (assuming you’ve got $1m in capital) is a sound one, check out the price falls of these ‘blue chips’ over the last 13 mths. Do you think you’ve got the stomach to sit on those kinds of capital losses, hoping that they’ll continue to pay dividends?

    Stock (ASX Code) Price at 29 April 2011 Price at 20 June 2012 Price change
    Rio Tinto (RIO) $83.37 $57.72 -31%
    Qantas (QAN) $2.13 $1.16 -46%
    Asciano (AIO)* $4.98 $4.40 -12%
    AMP (AMP) $5.54 $3.94 -29%
    BlueScope Steel (BSL) $1.84 $0.33 -82%
    Toll Holdings (TOL) $5.67 $4.15 -27%
    Fortescue Metals (FMG) $6.38 $4.91 -23%
    ANZ Group (ANZ) $24.32 $21.75 -11%
    BHP Billiton (BHP) $46.29 $32.60 -30%

  4. Tomas Finney says:

    When you mention using percentage of pre-reirement income to estimate retirement income needs, are you referring to gross income or income after PAYG tax is deducted?

    • Hi Tomas
      Thanks for your comment. When I refer to 60% to 65% of your pre-retirement income I am referring to gross income. The ASFA Retirement Standard figures however are after-tax figures.
      Regards
      Trish

  5. Sandy McQuade says:

    Hi
    I am 63 and working overseas.
    I have a unit in Cremorne worth about 700,000 which my wife and I own.
    We have about $350,000 in saving with a return of 6.5 % I have the capacity in the next 2 years to save about another $100,000
    I would like to buy a unit in mackay for retirement approx value 300,000 and sell my sydney property and put the rest into a bank with a return of 6.5%.
    If I was to retire what sort of taxes would I have to pay on my monies and finally would I be able to retire on this.
    Apprciate your assistance on this. I could look at buying a unit in Mackay now. The Market looks OK.

    Any other options that maybe better.

    Regards

  6. I have always wondered about one thing in reports on required income in retirement. Is this post tax income. For example if you have some income coming from superannuation/pension phase and some from Term Deposits outside superannuation and Shares which may be attracting tax do you have to net that out to match yourself against these tables? I think Centrelink adds your superannuation pension to your term deposit etc income when determining government pension eligibility but again I am not sure if they look pre or post tax. It is so confusing.

  7. Bob Amery says:

    Very few of us are as lucky as Mr Kalkman, who has sufficient income to sit out any downturn, which I assume means he thinks he’ll never have to sell any shares or other investments to provide income.

    It’s also concerning that, like many people, Mr Kalkman is myopically focussed on expected returns with little apparent consideration for the risk associated with deriving those returns. For example, the risk that companies won’t suspend or reduce dividends and the risk of dilutative equity raisings such as those of 2007 which slashed dividend per share payouts.

    Also, the statement that his SMSF achieves 15% doesn’t make sense, as the 8% average growth figure is not a cashflow. You can’t eat an average capital gain figure if you don’t sell any investments!

  8. Jon Kalkman says:

    All the discussion around how long $1 million or $2 million dollars will last hinges on the return retirees can achieve on their investments. Your assumption of only 7% income and growth before inflation does indeed mean that it is only a matter of time before the money runs out.

    For most people that assumption is quite valid because they are in a retail or industry super fund which is selling units with every pension payment. Therefore the sale price of these units is subject to enormous volatility. As a consequence, people using these products are strongly advised to hold a balance fund as the best compromise between return and volatility risk. Your experts at ASIC are also making this assumption.

    As I pointed out in my response of 3 November, if I have sufficient income to sit out any downturn, volatility is not a risk that I need to manage. Therefore, I can set my asset allocation to give me the best return in both income and growth. I choose to hold Australian shares because:

    Holding Australian shares inside my SMSF paying pensions means that my income is at least 7% from dividends (5%) and the refund of imputation credits (2%). Assuming that provides sufficient income, the only thing I need to worry about is inflation.

    Dividends depend on company profits not share prices. Company profits grow at an average rate of 8% which is faster than inflation. So if I just live off the earnings of my shares, the income stream should last as long as I do.

    So my SMSF, paying pensions, achieves 15% (7% income and 8% average growth). It begs the question why retail and industry funds have such a low return. It also begs the question why some many people persist with managed funds and their expensive sales representatives (advisers)

    I would hope that a non-aligned expert such as yourself would at least expose your readers to an alternative point of view from the usual – volatility risk – balance fund – low return – longevity risk spiel we get from advisers and the media with a vested interest in keeping clients in managed funds.

    Jon

    • J Lucas says:

      Thank you Jon!!!!!
      You are the first person to express so well what I have been wondering about. Am just starting an SMSF and wondering what assets to hold… am 51 years.
      I am planning to transfer from my industry super to my own super.
      was thinking of a mix of wholesale managed funds, shares, and some bonds/term deposits.
      After reading your comments, am thinking of reducing the managed funds and/or bonds, and having more in the shares…
      It also makes me wonder about holding a share portfolio outside of super that can supply a modest-comfy income, and retaining it as long as possible. if the shares are fully franked there are advantages for this model outside super anyway. I wonder if Trish has any articles/views on this strategy too. is the transition to retirement option effective if your main income is franked shares?
      Trish, a thousand thanks for your wonderful website and keeping it up to date. Tremendous work and greatly appreciated.
      :-) ))

      • It is important to note that imputation credits associated with dividends are tax credits for the 30% company tax already paid on the profits. The dividends shareholders receive are paid out of after-tax profits. Companies that pay tax in Australia generate imputation credits for their shareholders. These tax credits can be used to offset the shareholder’s other income tax liabilities and any unused credits are refunded as cash. Therefore, taxpayers whose marginal tax rate is less than 30% may get a refund for the tax already paid on their behalf. Taxpayers on a higher tax rate may need to pay extra to make up any shortfall.

        The attraction of superannuation is the tax incentives it provides and super funds are separate taxpayers.

        In accumulation phase the super fund, pays 15% tax on the fund’s income and tax-deductible contributions such as salary sacrifice contributions. Any imputation credits associated with that income can thus be used of offset this tax obligation and any unused credit is refunded.

        In pension phase, a super fund has to complete a tax return, but it pays no tax on its income or capital gains. This means that all the imputation credits are refunded as cash to the fund and this is extra cash that can be distributed to members as higher pensions.

        If you hold your shares outside super, the imputation credits will help to offset your tax payable on that income. In fact, you can earn $94,500 in dividend income and pay no additional tax (assuming 100% franking) as the associated $40,500 imputation credits cancel out the tax payable on the taxable income of $135,000. (Imputation credits are regarded as income even though you do not receive them)

        If you hold your retirement savings inside a SMSF paying a pension, the fund pays no tax on its earnings and the fund gets an additional tax refund for any imputation credits. Therefore, the same $94,500 in dividends would get an additional refund of $40,500, for a total income of $135,000.

        Moreover, if you draw a pension from a super pension fund, you also pay no personal tax on your pension income if you are over 60. As it is tax exempt income, it does not even appear on your tax return and that means that any non-super income such as interest, rent, or dividends can benefit from low marginal tax rates and/or tax offsets.

        Combining the tax advantages of imputation credits with the tax advantages of a super pension make this a powerful strategy.

  9. The main issue with these numbers is the assumed 7% return over the long term. A cursory look at inventments would show that something below 6% is probably closer the ‘norm’

    • Hi Glenn
      Thanks for your comments. The assumed return that someone chooses to use is clearly very important when planning for a retirement target. It’s ironic that during the boom times between 2003 and 2007 I was challenged that using 7% after fees and taxes was too low. While today, investing after the GFC and dealing with rocky international investment markets and a flat Australian sharemarket, the 7% could arguably be considered too high as an assumed return. Later this year, I will explore this issue in more detail, especially the move towards after-tax reporting by super funds, which should deliver investment approaches that are more mindful of the return after taxes, rather than gross returns.
      In Australia, for those who invest in Australian shares there is an additional tax benefit when receiving franked dividends which can also boost a super fund’s returns. Even so, the reason I disclose the assumptions that I use is to ensure that readers can make their own decisions about the investment returns they choose to aim for, and adjust the numbers accordingly.
      Regards
      Trish

  10. Tony Hunt says:

    The one factor always left out of this superannuation equation by the experts is “How much, if any, do you want to leave to the kids when you die?”

    • Hi Tony
      Thanks for your comment. Most of the questions we receive about retirement planning are about how much is enough for a decent lifestyle. We also receive questions about estate planning, which is an extension of the question about ‘how much is enough’. Estate planning is a case-by-case scenario, and it is dependent on the retirement needs of the generous parent. We will however explore this issue in future articles.
      Regards
      Trish

Leave a Comment

*